What if Bahrain participated in the US Election?

According to the British business magazine The Economist, most people around the world would vote for Barack Obama. Even more interesting, in the Middle East and the Arabian Gulf in particularly, there is not less than a 95% support percentage for Obama (with the exception of Iraq, interestingly enough). For many people, John McCain = Bush's 3rd term.

In class at the beginning of the year, I asked students who they would vote for. Almost all responded with Obama. Of course, their votes are not counted, and neither are the votes of others around the world. But I think it worthwhile to try and understand why this is true.

1) Bush's policies in the beginning were very confrontational and 'lone ranger' (Even Fareed Zakaria, liberal leaning editor of Newsweek see's bush as changing his attitude later in his tenure as president). Whether or not waiting for everyone to agree with him was the right decision, the result of this attitude was a feeling of alienation of many people. There is a sense that Bush will do whatever he wants to without regard to how it will affect the rest of the world. Bush's confrontational attitude has made more enemies than he needed to make. Many people view Obama as someone who would be less confrontational and more willing to work with other countries.

2) Middle East: It is interesting to note that so many people here are so in favor of Obama when the cultures are so conservative by American standards. Most people would line up with the republican party on issues such as abortion, gay marriage, taxes, immigration and most other issues.

Cultural Lesson - there is an element of Brotherhood that is present in the middle east that goes beyond political affiliations and alliances. To put it one way - one Arab's shame is all Arabs' shame. Though they may not have liked Saddam Hussein, many Arabs did not like the fact that 'one of their own' was defeated so quickly. They do not like the fact that another group has come in and done 'whatever they please.'

Bush has, therefore, 'dishonored' the region. 'Honor' is a central concept to self-perception and one of the deepest elements of identity in this part of the world. When one is 'dishonored', everything possible must be done to regain the lost 'honor'. This is a somewhat alien concept in the west, but it is absolutely necessary in understanding people who are from this region.

With this in mind, many Arabs seem to believe that Barack Obama will be more honoring to them and will partner with them in achieving common foreign policy goals.

3) Two more, less substantive reasons that many people in the Middle East support Barack Obama. a) With a Name like Barack Hussein Obama, many people assume that he is Muslim, though Obama has been adamant about his Christian faith. b) He is black, and therefore assumed to have a very different perspective on life. I think many people think he comes 'from the hood.'

So there you have it. Bahrain has thrown its support in for Barack Obama. We'll see in just a few days what will come in the US.

My prediction: Barack Obama. Popular Vote: 49%-46% Electoral College vote: 349-189.